Metoder
Backcasting
Brainstorming
Citizens Panels
Conferences/Workshops
Delphi. Interviews.
Expert Panels
Genius Forecasting
Horizon scanning
Literature Review (LR)
Morphological Analysis
Relevance Trees/ Logic Charts
Role play/Acting
Scenarios
Simulation Gaming
Surveys
SWOT
Trend analysis
Wild Cards & Weak Signals (Wi-We)
www.rafaelpopper.wordpress.com/foresight-methods
Scenarie begrebet
The word ‘scenario’ was introduced to futures studies by H. Kahn in his 1969 book: The Year 2000.
www.sciencedirect.com/001 ...
Herman Kahn udgivelser
www.google.dk/Herman+Kahn ...
Morfologisk analyse
Morfologisk analyse
Formålet med morfologisk analyse er at reducere kompleksitet.
Kompleks vs. Kompliceret:
Hvor det komplicerede kan skilles ad og løses (som en motor), er det komplekse flettet sammen, så det ødelægges, hvis det skilles ad.
Morphological Analysis
Morphological Analysis helps both complex problem-solving and management of change; it may be used in planning or scenario development. It maps promising solutions to a given problem and determines possible futures accordingly: the classic applications have involved systematically working through the entire range of conceivable technological solutions for a particular goal (such as attaining a manned mission to the moon).
Morphological Analysis is closely related to relevance trees (see below), and to the soft-systems approach.
Relevance Trees
Relevance Trees and Logic Charts are methods in which the topic of research is approached in a hierarchical way. Each begins with a general description of the subject, and continues with a disaggregated exploration of its different components and elements, examining particularly the interdependencies between them.
www.rafaelpopper.wordpress.com/foresight-methods
Morfologi i grammatik
Morfologisk analyse (formlære) undersøger et ords indre struktur ved at opdele det i de mindste betydningsbærende enheder, kaldet morfemer, samt bestemme ordets ordklasse og bøjningsform.
www.lex.dk/morfologi ...
SMIC method
The SMIC method
The SMIC method is a scenario-generation technique used in futures studies to analyze the probabilities of various events and their impacts on one another.
Developed in 1974 by Michel Godet and J.C. Duperrin, it is designed to improve decision-making by constructing and ranking consistent, possible future scenarios.
The SMIC method (an acronym for Cross-Impact Method for Systems or in French, Méthode des Scénarios avec Impacts Croisés).
SMIC 74 - A method for constructing and ranking scenarios
J. C. Duperrin and M. Godet. Futures 1975
www.futuribles.com/SMIC ... PDF.
The SMIC method (an acronym for Cross-Impact Method for Systems or in French, Méthode des Scénarios avec Impacts Croisés) is a quantitative and qualitative scenario-generation technique used in futures studies to analyze the probabilities of various events and their impacts on one another. Developed in 1974 by Michel Godet and J.C. Duperrin, it is designed to improve decision-making by constructing and ranking consistent, possible future scenarios.
Core Components and Methodology
Expert Input: The process begins with expert consultation (often using a Delphi approach) to identify key events, their individual probabilities, and their conditional probabilities.
Cross-Impact Analysis: Unlike simple forecasting, SMIC analyzes how the occurrence or non-occurrence of one event affects the probability of another.
Scenario Construction: The method generates a set of possible scenarios based on the combinations of these events (binary yes/no).
Ranking & Consistency: It ranks these scenarios based on their likelihood and checks for consistency, reducing the number of possible futures to the most plausible ones.
Key Aspects of SMIC in Futures Studies
French School Approach: It is a cornerstone of the French school of "la prospective," which emphasizes strategic foresight, systemic analysis, and actor strategies.
Reducing Complexity: It helps handle complex systems by reducing a high number of potential events into a few coherent scenarios.
Application: It is frequently applied in technological forecasting, economic planning, and strategic management to explore "what if" questions and identify potential turning points.
Software Tools: The SMIC method is often supported by software (such as that provided by 3ie/Laprospective) to manage the calculation of probabilities and cross-impacts.
SMIC is often used in conjunction with other structural analysis methods (like MICMAC) to connect actors' strategies with potential future scenarios.
Kilde: Gemini.
MICMAC
MICMAC (Matrix of Cross-Impact Multiplications Applied to a Classification) is a structural analysis tool used in futures studies to identify and analyze key driving forces (variables) influencing a system's future. It maps relationships between variables to identify, rank, and categorize them as influential, dependent, or relay factors, helping to build consistent, evidence-based scenarios for decision-making.
Key Aspects of MICMAC in Futures Studies:
Purpose: To understand complex, dynamic systems by identifying which variables have the highest influence and dependence.
Process: It involves identifying factors (often via brainstorming or Delphi methods), assessing direct relationships between them in a matrix, and using software to calculate direct and indirect interactions (multiplication).
Output: The analysis generates a plane of Influence-Dependence, classifying variables into categories:
Driving/Influential Variables: Highly influential, low dependence (the main drivers of change).
Linkage/Relay Variables: Highly influential and highly dependent (unstable).
Dependent Variables: Low influence, high dependence (resultant of the system).
Applications: Commonly used in strategic planning, urban planning, tourism, and industry analysis to uncover critical drivers for scenario development.
Software: The analysis is typically conducted using dedicated software to handle the matrix multiplication and visualization.
By identifying the most influential and volatile factors, MICMAC helps planners prioritize actions in uncertain, long-term environments.
Kilde: Gemini.
Technological forecasting
Technological forecasting study
Evaluative implementation of Delphi and cross-impact analysis methods.
www.sciencedirect.com/S00 ...